My entry using TA

This is where I track my TA and monitor if I can be consistent right using the following criteria as entry:

1. RSI 30
2. Stochastic from under 20 and moving upward.
3. MACD golden cross
4. Price drop to a recent low

When you sell, the reverse should happen,
1. RSI 70 (to is a rough guide, it may exceed 70)
2. Stochastic from over 80 and moving downward
3. MACD death cross
4. Price may reach a resistance line

The reason for posting my trade is to evaluate if my TA style can make money in the long run.

FL bought in Feb 17 and sold in Mar 17

This is my trade on FL, bought at $67.8 when 3 indicators (as indicated by green circles) were seen.  Then sold at $76, that was not the highest price at that point, because I sold when I saw the MACD turning down.  MACD is usually when react after price has turned.  Eventually all 3 indicators fulfilled my criteria.

This is my trade on 0665, bought at $4.28 when RSI around 30, MACD golden cross.  Stochastic was uptrend but not cross 20 yet.  However I didn't get the maximum profit because of greedy thinking it may hit above $5.  When it turned down from $5, I quickly close position when all 3 indicators appeared.  MACD death cross and Stochastic had turned down from 80, by then RSI was around 50.  This indicated I was slow to react to changes when it turned against me.  I was right when to buy but I don't have a good idea when to sell.  Unless I bought a huge amount, I will sell half when RSI is at 70, that is when price is at peak and the remaining half when all indicators tell me to leave.

This is FSLR.  I didn't buy this at the lowest, bought around $28 when I thought I could anticipate before the price go up.  It went lower to $26 before the 3 indicators appeared.  RSI was below 30, MACD golden cross and Stochastic turning up.  I sold at $30 when I saw Stochastic hovered at 70.  At that point I didn't want to sell as there was no clear sign to sell.  RSI still not high and MACD still going strong.  I was right that it went higher but my action to sell was wrong.  It went higher to > $37 right after the announcement of good results.  Key thing to note next time, if it is near to any announcement, do take note.  As it can go either way.

This is 2208.  I bought at $10.90, the lowest was $10.80.  Bought when 
1. Stochastic turning up
2. RSI was close to 30
3. MACD turning up
Then it went up to $12 but didn't sell.  Finally sold at $11.8 even though there was no clear indication of reverse trend and turn downward.  I sold when I saw RSI of SSE index close to 70.  SSE has gone up too fast in a short time.  So I prefer to take profit first.  If 2208 can go below $11.4, I may consider again.

This is USLV.  Bought at $11.7, the lowest was $11.  The moment I saw all 3 signs appeared, the price had ran up a bit so in the end only managed to get at $11.7.  As it continued to go up further I bought 2nd time at $12.38.  For those bought at $12.38, I sold at $13.15. Keep the half for higher price.

This is UWT.  Bought at $15.4.  Although lowest is below $14 but I waited for clear sign.  The 3 indicators appeared when it past $15.  It went as high as $19+ but I didn't sell because RSI was less than 70 at that point.  In the end sold all at $18.3 just before it dropped to $16+ in a day.

This is DSLV.  Switched to this after selling USLV.  Bought at $23.5.  When USLV MACD dead cross and DSLV MACD golden cross, I bought this.  

Investing rules

Investing rules
投资指导准则

1. Choose stocks with good fundamental
When you found a good stock put in your list and set a target price to buy. Example you have selected DBS then set $8 as buy price. When it come to $8, just buy. Dont feel bad when it drop further because you never knows when is the lowest. It is not often that it will come to that kind of attractive price.

2. Avoid risk
Even blue chips can drop 10% during correction. So allocating the fund equally and not putting too much in one particular industry ways to avoid risk. Example the oil crisis starting in 2014, if you have put 100% in marine industry, that will be a big problem.

3.长期经营 vs 长期投资
There are 2 approaches, buy low sell high vs Warren Buffett's method of buy and keep forever. I choose the former method because the market is cyclical, simply buy low and sell high. It is not easy to find stocks like Coca Cola which only go up years after years.

4. Right mindset

Don't be affected when the stock price dropped as this is part and parcel of the game. Always ask what is the reason for the drop (market correction, poor results...) and should you add more when it has dropped further. When price dropped be mindful of the general market trend. What is the market trend, up or down, this will affect your decision to add more.

5. Avoid herd mentality

Generally 80% who invested in the stock market lost and 20% made money. So in order to make money be prepared to be different. "Be greedy when others are fearful." Build up your confident and independent thinking. This takes up. 

Why I haven't made any $ in stock market

I have officially started this investing journey in 2012 after I picked up some investing knowledge.  5 years into this journey, after tons of books read, many stocks analysed and endless predication, I am still where I am.  I haven't had a big leap and accelerated towards my goal of having a million in my pocket.  But patience is the essential of this long marathon.  I keep telling myself this is not a sprint where I can make big buck in the shortest time, waiting for the right opportunity is the key.

Why I didn't make it,

1. I have been anticipating all the time.  In way timing the market.  Some people did well because they don't time the market, just buy when the stock come to the right price.  

2. Due to the anticipation, I only enter small amount into each stock.  So even if I am right, it is not going to have big impact to my portfolio.  Example I bought 8 lots Select Group at less than $0.4 and was delisted in 2016 for $0.525.  I picked the right stock but size is too small.

3. I should just focus on 5 to 10 stocks.  Having too many stocks will make one too busy having to keep up with all the financials and monitoring.  

4. I don't have an investing style yet. I have been keep searching for the right style.  Actually too many styles, will make me busy and not focus.  I should from now, do a checklist or template which I will follow.

This is a look back, once a while in life, we must slow down and look at the problem and do fine tuning. Look what haven't worked and refine. 

What I learnt from the market over the last few years

Although STI has been moving side way for a long time but there are still many stcks that I have analysed had went higher and higher. I didnt take action and buy because I feel STI has no room to go up further and stock has reached all time high.

The few examples are Sheng Siong and SATS. I believe these 2 stocks have good fundamental and business is easy to understand. When I noticed Sheng Siong, it was $0.6 and it was it all time high. I was afraid to enter because its trading volume is not high and its initial plan to enter China stops. But what I am certain about this business is it is unlikely to go belly up. This business is cash rich and has the ability to carry on to expand. At that point, i felt there was limited room to go up, upside more than downside, I held on to my bullet. Looking back, I should start a 20% of my allocated fund in this stock. The remaining 80% shall wait for it to drop lower. As I believe it will not go belly up and give about 5% dividend while waiting, it is not a bad deal. At the point of writing, it is $1.0+. I have no guts to enter as it is too high and together with market volatility, I am not comfortable.

I think the problem with me is I have limited cash and I am afraid to loss my capital.

There is still opportunity in this uncertain time

In the year 2016, I am relative quiet in buying any stocks in Singapore. As I feel there is not much growth and upside not more downside so I have been in the cave. But I see 2 opportunities just slipped away from me. They are Super group and ARA management, they will be privatised. These 2 are in my list of stocks that I will buy in crisis. I like them because the business is easy to understand. They are considered stocks in circle of competence.

I feel I failed in some way. I have read so many books by investing guru but I failed to excute what I learnt. Example Warren Buffett said if price had dropped to its intrinsic value and business still remain the same we should simply add more. The problem with me is that I keep anticipating a crisis is coming so I am not willing to buy now and when it dropped more I have no fund to buy more. What I will miss out is all dividend I could get while waiting.

At the meantime I have to look for some other stocks to replace Super and ARA.

Macro economy in November 2016

S&P had continuous dropped for more than a week, from 2150 to 2085 prior to US election. A day before election it recovered about 80%. Every single negative news that was report on Clinton or Trump had been reflected in the stock market. As there are 2 camps of people supporting Clinton or Trump, any bad news of each one of them are simply bad news to the market. The popularity of Trump had been lower than Clinton most of the time. In the morning of 9 November during the vote counting, stocks in Singapore dropped as Trump was leading. Dow Jones futures was -700 points at one point. At the end of the day when news of Trump as president was announced, it rebound back more than 50% from the lowest point and Dow Jones instead of dropping it went up 200 points.

Although you can say market is unpredictable but from this I learnt something. Many analysts expected the market to drop no matter who is the next president as supporter of either side will reacted to the news. I think the continuous dropped in US market for more than a week prior to election was early anticipation of the result, everyone reacted early. So when news was released it will not drop any further as it had reacted. It dropped to the lowest on 4 Nov and bounded back on 7 Nov before election day. The more it dropped the higher it will bound back, similar to spring, I shall call this spring effect. At this point looking at the chart, I believe market will go up another few more days before any bad news is coming back again.

Learning to take care of yourself

I think you will often hearing me commanding you to do this and that, ask you to bring clothes to laundry, bring plates to the sink and etc.  While growing up you will most probably won't understand why I have been shouting at you and I guess nobody will like that.  The very reason I am doing so because I don't want you to grow up waiting for someone to do everything for you or grow up not being able to take care of yourself.  I am sure you will thank me later in your life.  In doing all these things by yourself you learn independent and take initiative.  

Bear with me for the time being.