Sunday, November 6, 2016

Macro economy in November 2016

S&P had continuous dropped for more than a week, from 2150 to 2085 prior to US election. A day before election it recovered about 80%. Every single negative news that was report on Clinton or Trump had been reflected in the stock market. As there are 2 camps of people supporting Clinton or Trump, any bad news of each one of them are simply bad news to the market. The popularity of Trump had been lower than Clinton most of the time. In the morning of 9 November during the vote counting, stocks in Singapore dropped as Trump was leading. Dow Jones futures was -700 points at one point. At the end of the day when news of Trump as president was announced, it rebound back more than 50% from the lowest point and Dow Jones instead of dropping it went up 200 points.

Although you can say market is unpredictable but from this I learnt something. Many analysts expected the market to drop no matter who is the next president as supporter of either side will reacted to the news. I think the continuous dropped in US market for more than a week prior to election was early anticipation of the result, everyone reacted early. So when news was released it will not drop any further as it had reacted. It dropped to the lowest on 4 Nov and bounded back on 7 Nov before election day. The more it dropped the higher it will bound back, similar to spring, I shall call this spring effect. At this point looking at the chart, I believe market will go up another few more days before any bad news is coming back again.

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